Something that pops up a lot on writing blogs is the question - ‘how do I know I’m good enough to make it?’ It’s often accompanied by ‘I don’t want to be like THOSE people on Idol.’ You know the ones – who are so utterly terrible at singing that you wonder why their families didn’t tell them. How could they be convinced their good? What if I’m as blind about my conviction that I can make it as a writer?
I’ve come to the conclusion that if you’re asking the question, you’re not one of THOSE people. In 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger published a paper which showed that incompetent people really have no clue as to how incompetent they are (it was being splashed around the internet a month or so ago – you might have seen it).
The Dunning-Kruger effect showed that people who do things badly generally have no idea how bad at something they are and in fact are often more confident of their abilities than the people who do things well. The researchers believe that a certain level of competence is required before you’re able to actually recognise and judge competence. If you don’t develop that competence, you’ll never know that you’re crap.
Therefore, if you’re wondering if you are competent – you’re already on your way. You’ve gained enough ability to recognise what’s required and judge yourself against it. Incompetent people can’t do that.
Let’s use Idol as a comparison – I think if you’re asking the question about whether you’re good enough, whether you’ll make it, then already you’re NOT one of the truly-cringe worthy ones. Writers who are operating at that level don’t question. They’re sooooo sure that they’re brilliant, they’re incapable of judging themselves or others. It’s possible those writers (and those singers) have been told that they just aren’t that good, but they wave those comments away. ‘People don’t understand’, they say. ‘They can’t see my genius.’
Instead, questioners, think of yourselves as the singers who get the good comment from at least one of the judges. There is something there.
As to whether you’ll make it – ah, that’s another question. Only time will tell, and how much time you give it is up to you. If you’re happy to spend the rest of your life trying and trying, then go for it. I gave myself a time limit – I was going to make novels my priority for two years and if at the end of those two years I hadn’t improved as a novellist, then it was doubtful I ever would and I’d let go the publishing dream. How long you’re prepared to keep working on it, striving for your dream, is a choice that you need to make.
Something you might consider – what ‘make it’ means. In the music biz we tend to focus on the people at the top, the one’s who release albums and hit the charts and get played on radio. But they’re only a proportion of the people who make a living from making music. Think for example of backing vocalists. Session musicians. Writers. Producers. What about the folks whose career is on the cruise ships? People that run karaoke?
In writing, the focus tends to be on ‘the novel’, but even that doesn’t guarantee you a career. Perhaps your future lies in journalism, technical writing, teaching, editing, publishing?
So keep asking the questions. Keep learning and developing. The more you know, the better you can judge your ability and the more accurate will be your decision of what you want to achieve and what you’ll do to achieve it.